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The World Beyond Blockchain – Part 3/3: After the Storm

March 18, 2018 Leave a comment

My 2 previous posts on this topic described: the perfect storm that has brought things to this point (part 1/3), and explored current and emerging trends (part 2/3). This final post reflects on what will most likely play out after all the dust has settled.

After the storm – What’s next for the Blockchain
Given the current frothy state of most Blockchain based cybercurrencies, many people foresee a disastrous crash, or massive correction at least, and one may be forgiven for taking a skeptical view of the future of Bitcoin and it’s ilk. However, in light of the previously discussed factors, it is certain that the Blockchain is only starting its ascendence into every facet of human interaction with machines and with each other. When the dust finally settles, it is almost certain that the Blockchain will assume its rightful place as a key enabler of the fourth industrial revolution. A couple of indicators that clearly point the way towards this eventuality are:

1 – Moving from fission to fusion:
We are currently witnessing what can only be described as a period of explosive innovation based on / fueled by several disruptive and/or emerging technologies, including: AI, IoT, nanotech, biotech, robotics, 3-D printing, autonomous systems and vehicles, materials & energy tech, quantum computing and the Blockchain. This rapid outward acceleration of disruptive innovation is somewhat akin to nuclear fission, where each disruptive tech development sparks a chain reaction with other disruptive technologies and applications. However, even that pales in comparison with the potential disruptive power of emerging tech mashups which may be more likened to nuclear fusion. For example, a Blockchain powered Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) system running an IoT platform reeks of potential disruption overdrive. The recent 60 second $36M ICO of Singularity.Net’s Blockchain powered AI platform clearly shows that it’s just a matter of when, not if such an eventuality will manifest.

2 – Demographic expansion
Time and again it has been observed that teams with a higher diversity of people tend to produce more and better innovation, and this is something which can be seen with Blockchain and its myriad applications. For example, at an event I attended about Blockchain in developing countries, it was refreshing to see 50% of the panel were women in CxO roles, leading their organisations in navigating and deploying innovative Blockchain applications and disruptive use cases. Outside of a seemingly diversity challenged Silicon Valley, the Blockchain appears to be a magnet for diversity, with pools of entrepreneurs, users and disruptive use cases that cuts across traditional stereotypes and geo-political, socio-economic, demographic or even academic boundaries. It appears to be agnostic of age, gender, race or religious backgrounds, which is perhaps unsurprising given the multi-disciplinary influences and inputs required to create useful, successful Blockchain applications. Disciplines involved include: mathematics, psychology, philosophy, cryptography, computing, politics, economics and sociology. However, a lot still needs to be done in other areas because increased inequality represents one of the greatest concerns associated with the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Weathering the Storm: How to avoid the deluge and ride the wave
Below are my top tips for surviving and thriving through the period of disruptive cultural evolution that is bound to accompany the advent of this fourth industrial revolution and one of its key enablers:

1. Education – Get up to speed with Blockchain, and other emerging technologies, read simple introduction guides and watch videos from reputable sources, but please beware the excessive noise and froth of F.U.D out there, as not everyone is an expert.

2. Analyse your own situation – What does Blockchain mean for you as an individual, and for your organization or communities? Try to define your own use cases according to your area of expertise, and perhaps help your organization or community define or contribute to their Blockchain strategy.

3. People come first – Always put humanity first. A good dash of human compassion and grace will go a long way in future, because all emerging technology will ultimately become part of the plumbing enabling humanity, but even super humans need the right values too.

Finally, I’m no investment expert and the following does not in any way constitute investment advice, but for specific instruments, such as cryptocurrency and ICOs, it may be prudent to adopt a risk averse strategy and avoid any speculation, due to their relative immaturity. Otherwise some common sense approach will be required to even consider dabbling. For example, never gamble what you cannot afford to lose, or invest in something you do not understand, and always keep an eye on the regulatory landscape!

In conclusion, I believe the Blockchain will continue to be a fascinating topic for a while yet, but as more and more use cases become reality, it will ultimately go the way of other great enabling technologies (e.g. the Internet and Worldwide Web) and become part of the background infrastructure upon which yet more life changing innovation will emerge. You can bet on that!

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The World Beyond Blockchain – Part 2/3: The Eye of the Storm

February 15, 2018 1 comment
Even as early as 2013, it was already clear the immense impact that Blockchain could have on: industries, individuals and society at large. Even as Bitcoin futures markets were launched in late 2017 (complete with cryptocurrency primer), and as the Bank of England considers introducing a UK cryptocurrrency, it is instructive to observe the speed at which things develop and evolve, almost on a daily basis. For example, the intense volatility of a major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, with over 50% drop from a peak of almost $20,000 (in Dec 2017) to less than $8000 (in Feb 2018) is actually considered by some to be business as usual. Blockchain expert, Haydn Jones, at BlockchainHub, suggests that such highs and lows are actually indicative of active trading by buyers and sellers in a robust market. Besides, several other factors may also have exacerbated the huge price movement, e.g.: price manipulation (see allegations against Bitfinex / Tether), opportunistic short selling, tougher regulatory landscape, and even the Chinese / Lunar New Year!

 

 

Regardless of ongoing cryptocurrency price fluctuations, the above diagram depicts several key industries and activities which are currently or imminently undergoing, significant disruption by the Blockchain.

 

According to Blockchain researcher, Bettina Warburg, the Blockchain “provides a shared reality across non-trusting entities” which helps to: reduce uncertainty (via transparency), assure identity (via trust authentication), enforce asset tracking (via auditing) and guarantee execution / delivery (via smart contracts), all powered by mutual mistrust. Therefore, any industry or institution that relies on trusted 3rd party mediation is open to disruption by solutions that remove the need to know or trust the other party in a transaction. The Blockchain’s distributed, decentralised ledger of immutable transaction blocks is the trust platform upon which such transactions can occur. The successes of Bitcoin, and other cybercurrencies, attest the fact that the Blockchain is indeed the protocol that drives the so called Internet of value. It truly brings to life Professor Niall Ferguson’s assertion that “Money is trust inscribed”, even in the digital realm.

 

So many examples abound of new and pre-existing use cases for cryptocurrencies, smart contracts and DAOs (aka Decentralised Autonomous Organisations). They encompass diverse areas and players too numerous to mention and a recent CBInsights Webinar presentationoutlines the use of Blockchain in the enterprise.

 

The rising star du jour is the use of ICOs (or Initial Coin Offerings) for fund raising, which enables teams to raise sometimes eye watering amounts of money over a short space of time in exchange for coins or utility tokens at the launch of their solution. One recent ICO raised $36 Million in 1 minute! In comparison, you can probably see why the dot com bubble could be considered a sedate walk in the park.

 

Another emerging trend are faster, more scaleable, and fee-less cryptocurrencies which can be used to facilitate the low value and high velocity / volume transactions needed for the Internet of Things (IoT). These are next generation networks designed to get even faster through-put as the size of the network increases – in true to life network effect. Key players include IOTA, RAIBlocks and the proprietary Hashgraph. However they are all very much bleeding edge propositions, with many questions as yet to be answered.

 

Several concerns or potential roadblocks exist on the runaway expansion of the Blockchain, such as:

 

  • Increased regulation – There’s a looming threat or promise of tighter intervention by regulatory bodies and governments, especially for ICOs due to their conceptual proximity to the highly regulated securities industry. Other drivers include: reducing tax evasion, fraud, money laundering, anti-terrorism, as well as impact on PII (Personally Identifiable Information) data vs. the right to be forgotten and GDPR.
  • Security – Also, many security concerns persist, particularly in light of regular headlines about hacking, outright theft and other malfeasance. Increased Cryptojacking, i.e. the practice of stealing other people’s device processing power to mine cryptocurrency, is also a concern.
  • Scalability and fragmentation – it takes significant computing effort to mine Bitcoins, or to verify transactions, which has long raised concerns over its long term performance and scalability. The resulting splits or ‘ forks’ in that cryptocurrency have provided a vast array of competing coins (e.g.: Bitcoin! / Bitcoin XT / Bitcoin Unlimited / Bitcoin Cash / Segwit / Bitcoin Gold). Furthermore, there are myriad cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges to chose from, which can be rather daunting. Also the aforementioned next generation networks which use: Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) / voting algorithms / gossip protocols to deliver more flexibility, scale and performance.
  • Energy Consumption – Furthermore, the high cost of energy required to mine proof-of-work cryptocurrencies is another growing area of concern as it contributes to the spectre of global warming.
  • Privacy – Finally, the early association of Bitcoin with illicit and subversive activities on darknet sites (such as the defunct Silk Road and Alphabay) hasn’t really gone away, especially with the rise of privacy focused cryptocurrencies such as: Monero, Dash, zCash, Verge and DeepOnion. Contrary to popular belief, Bitcoin itself does not guarantee privacy because transactions can be linked to individuals (albeit with some effort), and all Bitcoin transactions are recorded for posterity on a very public Blockchain.

 

In light of the above opportunities and challenges, it is plain to see that the Blockchain technology is just at the starting line on a lengthy course of disruption and upheavals as yet unimagined. However, in the third and final part of this blogpost series, we’ll take a look at key scenarios and likely outcomes and conclusions after the storm has passed and dust settled.

 

The World Beyond the Blockchain – Part 1/3: The Perfect Storm

January 28, 2018 1 comment
In 2016, when my last article about the Blockchain and Bitcoin was published, the cryptocurrency was valued at about $400, which at the time seemed the result of fever pitch speculation and media hype. Fast forward to December 2017 and the order of magnitude increase, with over 1300% ROI in 2017alone, appears decidedly hallucinatory, but even that is nothing compared to the estimated $200,000+ peak valuation predicted by the time the last of 21 million possible Bitcoin has been mined. According to the maths, even if you were to invest in Bitcoin at $10,000 or $20,000 you’ll still stand to make an order of magnitude return on your investment well before that last bitcoin is mined! Such irrational exuberance, fools gold and / or mega bubble surely challenges previous examples, (e.g.: the infamous Dutch tulips, South Sea bubble or dot com bubble), for supremacy in foolhardiness, or does it?

Anyway, instead of all that hand wringing speculation, this three part post (from a forthcoming article for ITNow magazine) will focus on the perfect storm that has brought things to this point (in Part 1); it will explore current and emerging trends (in Part 2), and discuss possible scenarios that will likely play out after the dust settles (in Part 3), before concluding with a few recommendations on the way forward to the world beyond the Blockchain.

The winds of change – key Ingredients for the perfect storm:
We can acknowledge that Bitcoin is the first and perhaps most disruptive application of the Blockchain, at least for now. The following factors have combined to drive its emergence as a jaw dropping speculative investment opportunity, and the underlying blockchain technology as a revolutionary engine for hyper-charged innovation:
1 – Technology drivers:
  • According to CBIsights Research, Bitcoin is the first decentralized, censor-proof, portable, secure, durable, and scarce digital asset.
  • The underlying Blockchain is built on a solid foundation of proven technologies including public key cryptography, hashing and TCP/IP (aka the Internet protocols).
  • The Blockchain is one of several disruptive technologies that will enable and drive the so-called fourth industrial revolution.
2 – Global socio-economic, political and demographic drivers
  • Following 2008’s financial meltdown, with subsequent financial reforms and various other aftershocks, many institutions, including banks and governments, are suffering a major ‘crises of legitimacy‘ which is eroding their traditional role as trusted middlemen for many transactions
  • Global unemployment, hunger, terrorism, wars, natural disasters and mass migration all highlight and exacerbate inequality, xenophobia, mistrust and dissatisfaction with the status quo.
3 – Geometric scale disruption
  • The speed and scale of disruption and adoption of Blockchain applications is phenomenal, and it challenges existing systems of production, managment and governance
These key ingredients combine and contribute to the current frenzied interest in cryptocurrencies as well as the development of new, disruptive applications, business models and emergent behaviours powered by the Blockchain. In the second part of this blogpost series, we’ll take a look at the emerging opportunities and challenges to be found in the eye of the storm.

Copyright, Blockchain, Technology and the State of Digital Piracy

January 15, 2017 Leave a comment
The next installment of one of my favourite conferences on copyright and technology is right around the corner, on January 24th in NYC, and as usual it promises some interesting: debate, controversy and hot-off-the-press insights into the murky world of copyright business, technology, and legislation. Plus, this year, it also features a panel on the game changing technology of blockchain and its myriad disruptive applications across entire industries, including copyright and the creative industries.

Thankfully, the inclusion of this panel session recognises the never-ending role of new and innovative technologies in shaping the evolution of Copyright. Ever since that first mass copy technology (i.e. the printing press) raised questions of rights ownership, and due recompense for works of the mind, new technologies for replicating and sharing creative content have driven the wheel of evolution in this area. Attendees will doubtless benefit from the insight and expertise of this panel of speakers as well as moderator and Program Chair, Bill Rosenblatt, who questioned (in a recent blog post), the practicality, relevance and usefulness of blockchain in a B2C context for copyright. You are in for a treat.

This is a very exciting period of wholesale digital transformation, and as I mentioned once or twice in previous articles and blog-posts, the game is only just beginning for potential applications of: blockchain, crypto currencies, smart licences and sundry trust mechanisms in the digital domain. In an age of ubiquitous content and digital access, the focus of copyright is rightfully shifting away from copying and moving towards the actual usage of digital content, which brings added complexity to an already complex and subjective topic. It is far too early to tell if blockchain can provide a comprehensive answer to this challenge.

The Copyright and Technology conference series have never failed to provide some thought-provoking insights and debates driven by expert speakers across multiple industries. In fact, I reconnected recently with a couple of previous speakers: Dominic Young and Chris Elkins, who are both still pretty active, informed and involved in the copyright and technology agenda. Dominic, ex-CEO of the UK’s Digital Catapault, is currently working on a hush hush project that will potentially transform the B2C transaction space. Chris is co-founder Muso, a digital anti-piracy organisation which has successfully secured additional funding to expand its global footprint with innovative approaches to anti-piracy. For example, if you ever wondered which countries are most active in media piracy, then look no further than Muso’s big data based state of digital piracy reports. Don’t say I never tell you anything.

In any case, I look forward to hearing attendees impressions on the Copyright and Technology 2017 conference, which I’m unable to attend / participate this timme unfortunately. In the meantime, I’ll continue to spend my spare time, or whatever brain capacity I have left, with pro-bono activities that allow me to: meet, mentor / coach and advise some amazing startups on the dynamic intersection of IP, business and technology. More on that in another post.