Will our human bias eventually defeat AI?

February 26, 2019 Leave a comment

Each year, I make an effort to attend the IET / BCS Turing Talk in London, and over the past few years I’ve witnessed talks by leading minds in the field of Artificial Intelligence (AI), Machine Learning and even Computer Vision. It is no coincidence that AI takes center stage at this particular point in time, (i.e. the dawn of what the World Economic Forum call the 4th industrial revolution), because AI will likely have the most profound impact of all technologies powering said revolution.

This years edition of the Talk focused on the topic of AI bias, and how it mirrors & magnifies the biases of society and of the people that develop and deploy AI systems. Speaker, Krishna P. Gummadi, painted a clear picture of the resulting bias in data, algorithms and usage of AI, as well as the negative impact on under represented groups in society. He concluded with a 3 point call to action that will help address these issues, as follows:

  • Implement fair learning objectives – develop algorithms that take into account the needs and presence of sub groups within a general population. Error rates are key, especially regarding false: positives, negatives, omission and discovery.
  • Provide unbiased learning data – Address under represented minorities in sample data. Biased labelling can lead to self-fulfilling vicious cycle
  • Ensure unbiased representational data – Address the huge gender bias in AI representation

Don’t be fooled into thinking this will be an easy task. In adopting ethical or fair learning objectives, for example, one must understand and carefully navigate the dilemma inherent in minimizing error rates for one group versus another, versus the needs of an entire population. Furthermore, one may be forgiven for thinking, as the talk posited, that perhaps AI can “be engineered to help humans control (mitigate) bias or unfairness in their own decisions”, but this may be dangerous, or simply lazy & wishful, thinking.

In my opinion, AI does not have the level of maturity required at this time. It’s like raising a child, (with yourself as role model), and scolding her/him for mirroring your worst behaviors, but also expect him/her to figure out where, when and how you got things wrong, then proceed to fix it and you into the bargain! The point is that AI algorithms and the data which drive them are products of our society and cannot be expected to self-correct on the basis of the same flawed input. We need to do the heavy lifting in attempting to correct ourselves then let AI mirror and improve on the effort.

Finally, I think the Turing Talk organizers did well to feature Dr. Gummadi’s research topic, and I, along with the rest of the audience, sat in sometimes uncomfortable silence as he described some glaringly racist, sexist and other undesirable ills that plague society today – made all too concrete via AI enabled outcomes. I say ‘AI enabled outcomes’ because AI programs, algorithms etc. are not necessarily malicious in of themselves but can effectively become so for under-represented groups, with both intended and unintended consequences. Unbiased AI will remain a tall order, unless those that develop and deploy it take the above recommended measures as a crucial first step in that journey.

Advertisements

AI Lessons from TEDxWomen

December 21, 2018 Leave a comment

2018 has been dominated by relentless news coverage on the topic of Artificial Intelligence or AI, (perhaps even moreso than Blockchain – another hot topic du jour), which in turn proclaim doom or nirvana depending with whom you speak, and when. Why, I attended a recent TEDxWomen event at Salesforce Tower in London where I helped facilitate discussions about Robotics and AI, and I must say that given the level of interest and diversity of the group in attendance, it quickly became clear to me that ordinary people’s expectations, perceptions and conversations about the progress of AI needs feeding back to the people and processes that develop it. 

The topics under discussion originate from a couple of TEDWomen talks about: Robotics and developing empathetic AI co-pilot. The first talk featured Ayana Howard’s view that robots can be good yet also biased, sexist and racist, which could make them doubly dangerous given the level of trust and emotional attachment we humans sometimes place in robots. The second talk by Nivruti Rai, focused on tapping into our collective intelligence via a personal agent or ‘co-pilot’ which can provide constant guidance to its human subject, based on ‘wisdom-of-the-crowd’ style insight and thus influencing the users every decision e.g.: choice of meal, traffic navigation, and lifestyle choices, including choice of dates or marriage partners!       

Given the degree of emergent influence and impact on individuals, business and society, it is not surprising the level of trepidation people have about the unknown / unintended consequence of AI and its myriad applications. However, this group surprised me with their pragmatic and optimistic take on these developments, which are summarized in the following top 3 messages we played back to other attendees, as follows:

1. We must Embrace AI – AI is here to stay, therefore embrace it with certain knowledge that controlling AI might not be perfect, but as humans we can adapt and course correct as necessary

2. Absolutely need to address underlying bias issues – Must ensure those that work on AI also represent the diversity of humanity, particularly among typically under-represented minorities 

3. Emerging trends can be startling – Some countries have decided to sanction dating or marriage to AI, perhaps a harbinger of a likely future with evolved AI systems

In conclusion, it is heartening to know that people wish to be actively involved in the evolution and application of AI, especially where it impacts and influences their lives – i.e. before, rather than after the fact. Also, there is reasonable optimism and excitement, laced with trust in our human ability to adapt to the level of change it will undoubtedly manifest on society and people alike. After all, what is the point in having to receive last rites each time you engage an autonomous vehicle, or take advice from your trusted co-pilot? 

Successful Innovation: Is it an Art or Science?

March 25, 2018 Leave a comment

Shock, horror; learning STEM is not the answer! Well at least not according to Dr. Andy Harter in his thought provoking 2018 BCS/IET Turing Lecture. Thankfully, he also described the key qualities critical for success in the fourth industrial revolution. Read on to find out if you’ve got what it takes.

Harter kicked off the lecture with a poignant question about whether successful tech and innovation was down to an art or a science, giving much pause for thought, but more on that later. The following are the key qualities I took away from the lecture:

  • Creativity – This is inherent quality in every individual is not always teachable. However, it is important to nurture and inspire ‘sparky’ individuals. Creativity often works best when one is able to focus on human element and harness seemingly random ideas, thoughts and visions to solve problems.
  • Motivation is key – Necessity is mother of invention, therefore tapping into an area of need with real emotional connections to the individual can often lead to inspired breakthroughs
  • Story Telling – This can capture the imagination and turn mere functionality push into consumer pull. Great storytellers have lasting impact e.g. Nicola Tesla, Steve Jobs, Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk and Steven Spielberg
  • Timing – Being too early or too late is as good as being wrong. For example, the ‘way-ahead-of-it’s-time’ Apple Newton PDA was responsible for the ARM chip (aka Acorn RISC Machine) which is used to power so many mobile devices today. Timing is everything.
  • Observation – Learn to observe carefully everything e.g. detail, structure, patterns. This is one quality which can be taught and which only gets better with practice.
  • Time / space to think – The hare vs. tortoise approach to problem solving describes how frenetic pace can get in the way of deep-thought and meaningful insights. Prominent thinkers have used and recommend micro-naps as a boost for productivity.
  • Simplicity – make simplicity a key principle. Know what to leave out and try not to solve problems that don’t exist. Jazz great, Charlie Mingus once said: “Making the simple complicated is commonplace; making the complicated simple, awesomely simple, that’s creativity”
  • Adaptation – this is key to survival in nature, business and tech innovation. There are far too many examples of failures to adapt to a changing landscape. Today’s enterprise must embrace the phoenix like business model approach
  • Generosity – Abundance is a state of mind most relevant to the digital age / fourth industrial revolution. Free software, apps and information powered economy is driven by digital abundance on an unprecedented scale.

Aside from the above, I found it interesting that Harter prefaced the above points by showcasing the works of that most forward-looking polymath, Leonardo Da Vinci, whose ground breaking works combine and span the arts and sciences, and so much more besides. In a world chock full of incredible opportunities, with amazing breakthroughs in: A.I., Autonomous vehicles, Internet of Things and Cloud computing, it is plain to see that the most profound impacts will come from combinations thereof.

In conclusion, it’s become more obvious that the polymath mantra to: “study the art of science and the science of art” in full knowledge that “everything connects to everything else”, stands true more-so now than ever, especially for those seeking to succeed in the 4th industrial revolution. In my opinion, any education or training that features and applies both the arts and sciences will beat the rest going forward. Just sayin’.

 

The World Beyond Blockchain – Part 3/3: After the Storm

March 18, 2018 Leave a comment

My 2 previous posts on this topic described: the perfect storm that has brought things to this point (part 1/3), and explored current and emerging trends (part 2/3). This final post reflects on what will most likely play out after all the dust has settled.

After the storm – What’s next for the Blockchain
Given the current frothy state of most Blockchain based cybercurrencies, many people foresee a disastrous crash, or massive correction at least, and one may be forgiven for taking a skeptical view of the future of Bitcoin and it’s ilk. However, in light of the previously discussed factors, it is certain that the Blockchain is only starting its ascendence into every facet of human interaction with machines and with each other. When the dust finally settles, it is almost certain that the Blockchain will assume its rightful place as a key enabler of the fourth industrial revolution. A couple of indicators that clearly point the way towards this eventuality are:

1 – Moving from fission to fusion:
We are currently witnessing what can only be described as a period of explosive innovation based on / fueled by several disruptive and/or emerging technologies, including: AI, IoT, nanotech, biotech, robotics, 3-D printing, autonomous systems and vehicles, materials & energy tech, quantum computing and the Blockchain. This rapid outward acceleration of disruptive innovation is somewhat akin to nuclear fission, where each disruptive tech development sparks a chain reaction with other disruptive technologies and applications. However, even that pales in comparison with the potential disruptive power of emerging tech mashups which may be more likened to nuclear fusion. For example, a Blockchain powered Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) system running an IoT platform reeks of potential disruption overdrive. The recent 60 second $36M ICO of Singularity.Net’s Blockchain powered AI platform clearly shows that it’s just a matter of when, not if such an eventuality will manifest.

2 – Demographic expansion
Time and again it has been observed that teams with a higher diversity of people tend to produce more and better innovation, and this is something which can be seen with Blockchain and its myriad applications. For example, at an event I attended about Blockchain in developing countries, it was refreshing to see 50% of the panel were women in CxO roles, leading their organisations in navigating and deploying innovative Blockchain applications and disruptive use cases. Outside of a seemingly diversity challenged Silicon Valley, the Blockchain appears to be a magnet for diversity, with pools of entrepreneurs, users and disruptive use cases that cuts across traditional stereotypes and geo-political, socio-economic, demographic or even academic boundaries. It appears to be agnostic of age, gender, race or religious backgrounds, which is perhaps unsurprising given the multi-disciplinary influences and inputs required to create useful, successful Blockchain applications. Disciplines involved include: mathematics, psychology, philosophy, cryptography, computing, politics, economics and sociology. However, a lot still needs to be done in other areas because increased inequality represents one of the greatest concerns associated with the 4th Industrial Revolution.

Weathering the Storm: How to avoid the deluge and ride the wave
Below are my top tips for surviving and thriving through the period of disruptive cultural evolution that is bound to accompany the advent of this fourth industrial revolution and one of its key enablers:

1. Education – Get up to speed with Blockchain, and other emerging technologies, read simple introduction guides and watch videos from reputable sources, but please beware the excessive noise and froth of F.U.D out there, as not everyone is an expert.

2. Analyse your own situation – What does Blockchain mean for you as an individual, and for your organization or communities? Try to define your own use cases according to your area of expertise, and perhaps help your organization or community define or contribute to their Blockchain strategy.

3. People come first – Always put humanity first. A good dash of human compassion and grace will go a long way in future, because all emerging technology will ultimately become part of the plumbing enabling humanity, but even super humans need the right values too.

Finally, I’m no investment expert and the following does not in any way constitute investment advice, but for specific instruments, such as cryptocurrency and ICOs, it may be prudent to adopt a risk averse strategy and avoid any speculation, due to their relative immaturity. Otherwise some common sense approach will be required to even consider dabbling. For example, never gamble what you cannot afford to lose, or invest in something you do not understand, and always keep an eye on the regulatory landscape!

In conclusion, I believe the Blockchain will continue to be a fascinating topic for a while yet, but as more and more use cases become reality, it will ultimately go the way of other great enabling technologies (e.g. the Internet and Worldwide Web) and become part of the background infrastructure upon which yet more life changing innovation will emerge. You can bet on that!

The World Beyond Blockchain – Part 2/3: The Eye of the Storm

February 15, 2018 1 comment
Even as early as 2013, it was already clear the immense impact that Blockchain could have on: industries, individuals and society at large. Even as Bitcoin futures markets were launched in late 2017 (complete with cryptocurrency primer), and as the Bank of England considers introducing a UK cryptocurrrency, it is instructive to observe the speed at which things develop and evolve, almost on a daily basis. For example, the intense volatility of a major cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin, with over 50% drop from a peak of almost $20,000 (in Dec 2017) to less than $8000 (in Feb 2018) is actually considered by some to be business as usual. Blockchain expert, Haydn Jones, at BlockchainHub, suggests that such highs and lows are actually indicative of active trading by buyers and sellers in a robust market. Besides, several other factors may also have exacerbated the huge price movement, e.g.: price manipulation (see allegations against Bitfinex / Tether), opportunistic short selling, tougher regulatory landscape, and even the Chinese / Lunar New Year!

 

 

Regardless of ongoing cryptocurrency price fluctuations, the above diagram depicts several key industries and activities which are currently or imminently undergoing, significant disruption by the Blockchain.

 

According to Blockchain researcher, Bettina Warburg, the Blockchain “provides a shared reality across non-trusting entities” which helps to: reduce uncertainty (via transparency), assure identity (via trust authentication), enforce asset tracking (via auditing) and guarantee execution / delivery (via smart contracts), all powered by mutual mistrust. Therefore, any industry or institution that relies on trusted 3rd party mediation is open to disruption by solutions that remove the need to know or trust the other party in a transaction. The Blockchain’s distributed, decentralised ledger of immutable transaction blocks is the trust platform upon which such transactions can occur. The successes of Bitcoin, and other cybercurrencies, attest the fact that the Blockchain is indeed the protocol that drives the so called Internet of value. It truly brings to life Professor Niall Ferguson’s assertion that “Money is trust inscribed”, even in the digital realm.

 

So many examples abound of new and pre-existing use cases for cryptocurrencies, smart contracts and DAOs (aka Decentralised Autonomous Organisations). They encompass diverse areas and players too numerous to mention and a recent CBInsights Webinar presentationoutlines the use of Blockchain in the enterprise.

 

The rising star du jour is the use of ICOs (or Initial Coin Offerings) for fund raising, which enables teams to raise sometimes eye watering amounts of money over a short space of time in exchange for coins or utility tokens at the launch of their solution. One recent ICO raised $36 Million in 1 minute! In comparison, you can probably see why the dot com bubble could be considered a sedate walk in the park.

 

Another emerging trend are faster, more scaleable, and fee-less cryptocurrencies which can be used to facilitate the low value and high velocity / volume transactions needed for the Internet of Things (IoT). These are next generation networks designed to get even faster through-put as the size of the network increases – in true to life network effect. Key players include IOTA, RAIBlocks and the proprietary Hashgraph. However they are all very much bleeding edge propositions, with many questions as yet to be answered.

 

Several concerns or potential roadblocks exist on the runaway expansion of the Blockchain, such as:

 

  • Increased regulation – There’s a looming threat or promise of tighter intervention by regulatory bodies and governments, especially for ICOs due to their conceptual proximity to the highly regulated securities industry. Other drivers include: reducing tax evasion, fraud, money laundering, anti-terrorism, as well as impact on PII (Personally Identifiable Information) data vs. the right to be forgotten and GDPR.
  • Security – Also, many security concerns persist, particularly in light of regular headlines about hacking, outright theft and other malfeasance. Increased Cryptojacking, i.e. the practice of stealing other people’s device processing power to mine cryptocurrency, is also a concern.
  • Scalability and fragmentation – it takes significant computing effort to mine Bitcoins, or to verify transactions, which has long raised concerns over its long term performance and scalability. The resulting splits or ‘ forks’ in that cryptocurrency have provided a vast array of competing coins (e.g.: Bitcoin! / Bitcoin XT / Bitcoin Unlimited / Bitcoin Cash / Segwit / Bitcoin Gold). Furthermore, there are myriad cryptocurrency wallets and exchanges to chose from, which can be rather daunting. Also the aforementioned next generation networks which use: Directed Acyclic Graphs (DAG) / voting algorithms / gossip protocols to deliver more flexibility, scale and performance.
  • Energy Consumption – Furthermore, the high cost of energy required to mine proof-of-work cryptocurrencies is another growing area of concern as it contributes to the spectre of global warming.
  • Privacy – Finally, the early association of Bitcoin with illicit and subversive activities on darknet sites (such as the defunct Silk Road and Alphabay) hasn’t really gone away, especially with the rise of privacy focused cryptocurrencies such as: Monero, Dash, zCash, Verge and DeepOnion. Contrary to popular belief, Bitcoin itself does not guarantee privacy because transactions can be linked to individuals (albeit with some effort), and all Bitcoin transactions are recorded for posterity on a very public Blockchain.

 

In light of the above opportunities and challenges, it is plain to see that the Blockchain technology is just at the starting line on a lengthy course of disruption and upheavals as yet unimagined. However, in the third and final part of this blogpost series, we’ll take a look at key scenarios and likely outcomes and conclusions after the storm has passed and dust settled.

 

The World Beyond the Blockchain – Part 1/3: The Perfect Storm

January 28, 2018 1 comment
In 2016, when my last article about the Blockchain and Bitcoin was published, the cryptocurrency was valued at about $400, which at the time seemed the result of fever pitch speculation and media hype. Fast forward to December 2017 and the order of magnitude increase, with over 1300% ROI in 2017alone, appears decidedly hallucinatory, but even that is nothing compared to the estimated $200,000+ peak valuation predicted by the time the last of 21 million possible Bitcoin has been mined. According to the maths, even if you were to invest in Bitcoin at $10,000 or $20,000 you’ll still stand to make an order of magnitude return on your investment well before that last bitcoin is mined! Such irrational exuberance, fools gold and / or mega bubble surely challenges previous examples, (e.g.: the infamous Dutch tulips, South Sea bubble or dot com bubble), for supremacy in foolhardiness, or does it?

Anyway, instead of all that hand wringing speculation, this three part post (from a forthcoming article for ITNow magazine) will focus on the perfect storm that has brought things to this point (in Part 1); it will explore current and emerging trends (in Part 2), and discuss possible scenarios that will likely play out after the dust settles (in Part 3), before concluding with a few recommendations on the way forward to the world beyond the Blockchain.

The winds of change – key Ingredients for the perfect storm:
We can acknowledge that Bitcoin is the first and perhaps most disruptive application of the Blockchain, at least for now. The following factors have combined to drive its emergence as a jaw dropping speculative investment opportunity, and the underlying blockchain technology as a revolutionary engine for hyper-charged innovation:
1 – Technology drivers:
  • According to CBIsights Research, Bitcoin is the first decentralized, censor-proof, portable, secure, durable, and scarce digital asset.
  • The underlying Blockchain is built on a solid foundation of proven technologies including public key cryptography, hashing and TCP/IP (aka the Internet protocols).
  • The Blockchain is one of several disruptive technologies that will enable and drive the so-called fourth industrial revolution.
2 – Global socio-economic, political and demographic drivers
  • Following 2008’s financial meltdown, with subsequent financial reforms and various other aftershocks, many institutions, including banks and governments, are suffering a major ‘crises of legitimacy‘ which is eroding their traditional role as trusted middlemen for many transactions
  • Global unemployment, hunger, terrorism, wars, natural disasters and mass migration all highlight and exacerbate inequality, xenophobia, mistrust and dissatisfaction with the status quo.
3 – Geometric scale disruption
  • The speed and scale of disruption and adoption of Blockchain applications is phenomenal, and it challenges existing systems of production, managment and governance
These key ingredients combine and contribute to the current frenzied interest in cryptocurrencies as well as the development of new, disruptive applications, business models and emergent behaviours powered by the Blockchain. In the second part of this blogpost series, we’ll take a look at the emerging opportunities and challenges to be found in the eye of the storm.

[Book Review] of God, Man and Machines

June 18, 2017 Leave a comment

Book Title: Homo Deus A Brief History of Tomorrow. 

Author: Yuval Noah Harari

Overall Score: 9 (out of 10)

This has to be one of the more thought provoking books I have read in a while, and it boldly tackles a complex and far reaching subject at a most opportune time. Human evolution is something that has fascinated people since Darwin’s seminal work on the origin of then species, perhaps even moreso now with the advent of true A.I. The thought of self learning systems powering an autonomous independent entity can send shivers down the backs of even the most unflappable of people when it becomes real.

Homo Deus is Yuval Noah Harari’s second work on the topic of man’s evolution and he does not disappoint. His previous work, Sapiens, paints a compelling picture of the journey humanity has undertaken to get to this point. This work takes us on the next step of that journey by looking ahead into the future of humanity, assuming the current trajectory remains unchanged, in a way that is equally compelling and enlightening.

According to a central argument in the book, the emergence of Homo deus or ‘divine man’ is the logical next step in human evolution. Homo sapiens (aka thinking man) has progressed far enough on this journey that he is virtually at the cusp of achieving that goal along with mastery of 3 key defining pursuits, i.e: immortality, happiness and divinity. Such a breed of superhuman beings will be sufficiently different from Homo sapiens that the author has chosen to classify them as Homo deus. 

The book traces human belief systems from: belief in divine objects and beings, to belief in society states, and latterly a belief in the individual aka humanism. This is observed to be in step with expanding human communities: from individual family groups and clans to villages, towns and cities; each tier is enabled or limited by man’s ability to source food, security and the prevailing communication technology. There is a certain symmetry in the observed progression from God to man and to machines, as it’s the latter which is fueling the accelerated evolutionary leap to this new species of human being known as Homo deus.

In addition to excellent coverage of realistic humanism and post humanist scenarios, Harari provokes some insightful questions about the next phase of technology enhanced super-humanity and the emerging belief system of Dataism. Dataism describes the current scientific dogma that unites all branches of learning, and which effectively places man in his place as just another data processing system, amongst all other data processing systems, in a world where everything is all about data. He also touches on the inequity that is bound to become even more pronounced when the elites and their robot assistants / overlords decide to do away with the rest of humanity.

Although this is one heck of an interesting book, it doesn’t escape comparison with Harari’s initial masterpiece, which somehow manages to make this work appear less fully-formed and lightweight in relation to Sapiens. It asks more questions, albeit really good ones, than it answers, and somehow contrives to ignore the forest for the trees. By this I mean the relative pace of evolution among different species within an ecosystem. Homo Deus if they ever emerge will have to co-exist with and perhaps dominate other species on the planet, but will themselves be dependent on sustainable wellbeing and balance of the ecosystem in which they find themselves.

In spite of the above, and in conclusion, Homo Deus is a delightful, thought provoking peek at a posssible next phase of human cultural evolution and data driven existence. It is no surprise that it made the list of books reviewed and recommended by none other than Bill Gates in his 5 Good Summer Reads blog post. For this and other reasons stated above, I give it a resounding 9 marks out of 10.